The White House plan to dismantle NCAR
The Trump administration , through the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the National Science Foundation (NSF) , is moving forward with a plan to dismantle and restructure the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) , based in Boulder, Colorado . This laboratory, considered the global “mothership” of atmospheric research, is managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) consortium —comprising more than 100 universities—and primarily funded by the NSF.
The process was formalized with a Dear Colleague Letter issued by the NSF on January 23, 2026 , requesting proposals to redistribute NCAR’s capabilities, programs, and infrastructure, including the closure of its flagship Mesa Laboratory . The laboratory houses nearly 800 scientists and engineers specializing in storms, seasonal forecasting, and climate change.
Which functions would be redistributed and by whom?
The plan involves fragmenting NCAR’s capabilities across several institutions. According to available information, the most advanced transfers are:
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- Supercomputing: The NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center , located in Cheyenne, could be taken over by the University of Wyoming (UW) , potentially with private investor participation, while maintaining academic access.
- Research aircraft: The two NCAR research aircraft would be transferred to NASA or NOAA , a process that is already underway according to NSF guidelines.
- Laboratories and climate modeling: The core functions of Mesa Lab would be redistributed among universities, non-profit organizations — such as a proposed “American Center for Weather Prediction Science” that would merge elements of NCAR and NOAA — and potentially private corporations.
It is significant that the NSF letter makes no mention of the word “climate ,” prioritizing only space weather, meteorological phenomena, and short-term atmospheric research. This suggests that climate change research may be excluded from any replacement structure.
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Reactions from the scientific community
The scientific community’s response has been one of widespread rejection. The president of UCAR , Antonio Busalacchi , has publicly expressed his concern about the impact this process would have on decades of collaborative research. The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) sent a formal letter to the NSF requesting greater transparency regarding the restructuring process.
Scientists worldwide have called the NCAR the nerve center of global atmospheric research, warning of the risk of fragmenting scientific leadership that took decades to build. Democratic senators from Colorado, such as John Hickenlooper and Michael Bennet , tried to include protections for the NCAR in the tax spending bill, but Congress rejected those amendments.
From Colorado, some political analysts point out that the attack on NCAR could have motivations beyond the scientific: the state has refused to extradite Tina Peters , a former county clerk linked to election controversies, which would have generated tensions with the White House.
Implications for supercomputing and climate modeling
For tech founders and innovators in the data, AI, and climate technology ecosystem, this move has concrete implications worth analyzing:
Supercomputing with expanded… or fragmented access
The transfer of the Wyoming Supercomputing Center could pave the way for a more hybrid model, with private sector participation in high-performance computing infrastructure. In theory, this could facilitate access for startups and technology companies to computing power previously reserved for academia. However, the lack of continuity in centralized management poses a real risk of disruptions to long-term projects.
Climate modeling: the most vulnerable link
NCAR is responsible for some of the world’s most widely used climate models, including the Community Earth System Model (CESM) . A fragmentation without a clear continuity strategy could disrupt the updating, validation, and distribution cycles of these models, directly impacting climate tech startups , insurance firms, renewable energy companies, and precision agriculture platforms that rely on this data.
Opportunities for public-private collaboration
Paradoxically, the restructuring opens a window for private actors and international institutions to fill the void. Organizations such as research-based universities, cloud computing companies , and climate AI startups could position themselves as suppliers or strategic partners in a new, decentralized atmospheric research ecosystem.
The broader political context: science, budget, and power
The dismantling of NCAR is part of a broader trend of cuts to scientific institutions linked to climate change within the 2025 Project agenda , the conservative policy document that proposes eliminating or reducing agencies such as the Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy (ARPA-E) and the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) .
The final outcome will depend on the joint decisions of the OMB and the NSF , as well as the viability of the alternative proposals submitted. Currently, there is no definitive implementation timeline, although some transfers—such as the transfer of aircraft—have reportedly already begun.
Conclusion
The White House’s plan to dismantle NCAR represents one of the most drastic moves in US science policy in decades. Beyond the political debate, the practical consequences—in climate modeling, supercomputing, and international collaboration—are enormous and affect the entire technological value chain that relies on accurate atmospheric data.
For the startup ecosystem, especially in sectors such as climate tech , renewable energy, agtech and climate risk analysis, this is a moment of strategic attention: the gaps left by an institution like the NCAR can become real opportunities for innovation and collaboration — but also operational risks if they are not anticipated in time.